Ambassador Zalman Shuval

Ambassador Zalman Shuval

The historian Paul Kennedy is a brilliant thinker. A great historian, a very bad soothsayer. Both the last chapter of his The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers and his book Preparing for the Twenty First Century did not bring out the best in him. Why? Because Historians should not be fortune tellers.

Historians are in a habit of judging unfairly, as they judge decisions of the past, with the tools available today. Alas, the tools of today, were not available to those making decisions in the past. The historian should judge the decision of the past taking into consideration the available decision making processes and tools at the time the decision was made.

But one criteria should always be remembered. Something that did happened, can happen again, it is not "out of the blue", the assumption is not mere speculation. Something that did not happen, might, but then we must ask, why did it not happen thus far. Usually, the answer is technology. Be it the industrial revolutions commenced in England, the technical revolution that commenced over a quote of a century ago, or the arrival to what Thomas Friedman calls The World is flat.

How do you judge the future? Mostly speculate, as many unknown element will compromise  any assessment made. The collapse of the Soviet Union was anticipated. The results, the total anarchy in the supervision over the non conventional weaponry that resulted thereof, was not.

The Christian Science Monitor pointed out to the following for more than four decades, Syria has been a fiercely secular state. Its majority-Sunni population is ruled by a minority Shiite sect, the Alawites. But the country's majority Sunni population now views Syria's deepening relationship to Shiite Iran with creeping suspicion. "Syrians are speaking of Shiitization," says Redwan Ziade, a political analyst and human rights activist in Damascus.

Zalman Shuval

Such examples are an Unfinished symphony. And so, when speaking about the future, you need to have vast store of wisdom about the past, a sophisticated understanding of how developments accrue, even those of the unexpected, analyse your side's mistake. In other words, be a good student of the past, so the future will be better.

Israel was blessed with great minds. Great philosophers, great doers. Not many had a career in writing, and in doing as did our guest speaker tonight.  One of the leading businessman in Israel who has a distinguished career as a parliamentarian and as a diplomat, as the very proud Israeli Ambassador to Washington, during difficult times, when George Bush The Father occupied  The Oval office, and James Baker, was, the Secretary of State and as adviser to the Prime Ministers.

It was Ambassador Shuval who was encouraging the policy to have the US attack Iraq, sooner rather then later in 2003, he is a man who was not discouraged by hostility even in Washington and stood firm when Israel's interests were at stake. He is a phenomenally well read intellectual – who is addicted to classical music I should add – and he is one individual to whom this institution, The Jerusalem Great Synagogue has an eternal debt.

Ladies and gentleman, if there is anybody who can intelligently analyse the future based on the past, it is Ambassador Zalman Shuval, so "lend him your ears".

Zalli Jaffe