The
crisis presently developing in Judea, Samaria and Gaza introduces a
unique element of uncertainty, violent disagreement and confusion.
Theoretically, there are four options to the crises in the West Bank:
- The area be officially annexed as an integral part of Israel, and athe non – Jewish residents of same acquire certain defined privileges (“The Autonomy Plan”).
The Jordanian option.
A creation of a Palestinian State with the approval of Israel.
- A creation of same, notwithstanding Israel’s reservations.
Israel
is divided. It is a gross error for one party to ignore the position of
a counterpart. This is painfully true in Israel, as no party is strong
enough to implement what it considers the proper policy; the right wing
cannot enforce the Autonomy Plan; the Labor Party failed in its efforts
to exercise the Jordanian option. Indeed, this is a realization of
Barbara Tuchman’s theory that “…the presence of disunity… about method
of strategy and among the nation’s people about the rightness of the
war’s aim makes it impossible for a war of any duration to be fought
effectively and won” (Barbara Tuchman, The First Salute).
The
fact that Israel has no clear policy does not imply that Israel’s
adversaries will not succeed in carrying out their own plans.
The
“intifada” was not challenged. Israel failed to abate the tension and
control the violence. Israel had no policy, as the government could not
offer a consensus, and the army alone will never solve the problem, as
Paul Kennedy wrote in his book, “…the history of the past 500 years of
international rivalry demonstrates that military security alone is never
enough” (Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Power).
If
Israel does not adopt a policy acceptable by a stable majority of the
Knesset, we shall face a quick development of the Algiers summit and its
implementation, which will only be challenged by intra Arab rivalries.
Should
this be the case, we must prepare ourselves to the dangers of a
Palestinian State and to the benefits, if any, which we can derive from
it.
We
must attend to the Galilee and to areas in the Negev where the Jewish
population exists in a small number; we should form a policy with regard
to those Israeli citizens of Arab origin who have endorsed the
“intifada”. Presently, Israel can impose conditions and limitations on
the newly created Palestinian Entity “un-imposable” in the future. From a
Machiavellistic point of view, Israel could, if need be, “sell its
consent to the creation of a Palestinian state in consideration for
economic independence.
The
writer does not suggest that a Palestinian State shold be supported.
However, he fewars that the government of Israel, with the policy which
it has exercised in the last two years has contributed to and
strengthened the nationalist feelings of the Palestinians and so,
encouraged them in their aim towards a Palestinain entity.
Regretfully,
the circumstances in Israel have drastically decreased Israel’s ability
in the foreseeable future to alter or block the “road to Algiers and
beyond”
Zalli Jaffe
1996
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